The Auroral Forecast: A Short-Term Prediction of the Aurora's Location and Intensity
Overview
The Auroral Forecast is a valuable tool for anyone who wants to see the Northern Lights (aurora borealis). It provides a short-term forecast of the aurora's location and intensity, so you can plan your viewing accordingly. The forecast is based on data from the OVATION (Oval Variation, Asymmetry, and Timing) aurora model, which is run by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
How to Use the Auroral Forecast
The Auroral Forecast is available on the SWPC website and as a mobile phone app. To use the forecast, simply select your location and date. The forecast will show you the predicted location and intensity of the aurora for that time and place.
Location
The forecast will show you the predicted location of the aurora as a map. The map is color-coded to indicate the intensity of the aurora, with green being the weakest and red being the strongest. The aurora is most likely to be visible in areas that are shaded green or higher.
Intensity
The forecast will also show you the predicted intensity of the aurora. The intensity is measured on a scale of 0 to 9, with 0 being the weakest and 9 being the strongest. An intensity of 3 or higher is typically considered to be good for viewing the aurora.
Tips for Viewing the Aurora
Here are a few tips for viewing the aurora:
- Find a dark location with clear skies.
- Give your eyes time to adjust to the darkness.
- Be patient. The aurora can be unpredictable, so it may take some time to appear.
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